World Cup 2026: History says the favourites are wrong – Here’s what the records actually show

The 2026 FIFA World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico is expected to generate $60 billion in wagers on regulated sportsbooks worldwide.

Outright betting is one of the most popular ways for punters to wager on the World Cup, as it can provide them with long-term interest in the event.

Read on as we look at the latest betting for the tournament, before assessing why history suggests that the bookmakers may have picked the wrong favourites.

World Cup 2026: Outright betting

• France – 9/2
• Spain – 9/2
• England – 6/1
• Brazil – 8/1
• Argentina – 9/1
• Portugal – 10/1
• Germany – 14/1
• Netherlands – 20/1
• Norway – 28/1
• Belgium – 33/1
• Colombia – 33/1
• United States – 50/1
• Japan – 50/1
• Morocco – 50/1
• Switzerland – 50/1
• Uruguay – 66/1
• Mexico – 66/1
• Sweden – 66/1
• Croatia – 80/1
• Turkey – 80/1
• Ivory Coast – 80/1
• Ecuador – 100/1
• Austria – 100/1
• Senegal – 100/1
• Canada – 150/1
• Paraguay – 150/1
• Scotland – 150/1
• Czechia – 200/1
• Bosnia & Herzegovina – 200/1
• Ghana – 250/1
• South Korea – 300/1
• Egypt – 300/1
• Algeria – 300/1
• Australia – 500/1
• Iran – 500/1
• Tunisia – 500/1
• South Africa – 500/1
• DR Congo – 750/1
• New Zealand – 1000/1
• Qatar – 1000/1
• Saudi Arabia – 1000/1
• Cape Verde – 1000/1
• Panama – 1000/1
• Iraq – 1000/1
• Uzbekistan – 1500/1
• Jordan – 2000/1
• Haiti – 2000/1
• Curacao – 2000/1

World Cup 2026: Have the bookies made a misstep?

Just eight nations have won the World Cup in the 22 tournaments which have been staged. The roll of honour is as follows:

• 2022: Argentina
• 2018: France
• 2014: Germany
• 2010: Spain
• 2006: Italy
• 2002: Brazil
• 1998: France
• 1994: Brazil
• 1990: West Germany
• 1986: Argentina
• 1982: Italy
• 1978: Argentina
• 1974: West Germany
• 1970: Brazil
• 1966: England
• 1962: Brazil
• 1958: Brazil
• 1954: West Germany
• 1950: Uruguay
• 1938: Italy
• 1934: Italy
• 1930: Uruguay

France and Spain are rated as the favourites to lift the trophy in New Jersey on June 19, but history suggests better value may lie elsewhere.

Les Bleus have been world champions on two previous occasions (1998 & 2018), while Spain have won the tournament once (2010).

By contrast, Brazil (5), Germany (4) and Argentina (3) have combined to win more than half of the 22 World Cups staged.

Based purely on history, the Samba Kings’ odds of 8/1 to win the tournament are undoubtedly a tempting proposition.

Defending champions Argentina also hold plenty of appeal at 9/1, although it is worth noting that no team has retained the trophy since Brazil achieved the feat in 1962.

Geography also appears to be a factor which the bookies have overlooked when formulating their odds for this summer’s World Cup.

The tournament has previously been staged in the Americas on eight occasions and has been dominated by teams from that region.

Brazil (3), Uruguay (2) and Argentina (2) have lifted the trophy when it has been staged on their side of the Atlantic Ocean. Germany’s success at Brazil 2014 is the only outlier.

Based on previous history and geographical influence, Brazil and Argentina should probably be the favourites to win the World Cup this summer.

Slight preference is for Argentina, who were dominant during South American qualifying. They also still have star playmaker Lionel Messi in their ranks.

Argentina could feasibly meet Brazil in the semi-final on July 15. If that clash comes to fruition, whoever wins the game will be worth backing in the final.